“Exciting News: Learn About Q3 Delivery Estimates and Meet the Newly Appointed Tesla Board Member!”

Tesla welcomes a new board member, Joe Gebbia, who co-founded Airbnb and now sits on its board and advises the company. Although there is not much information about his background, it is thought that his experience with shared ownership business models could be helpful for Tesla as it moves more into autonomy and robo taxi-type services. With Tesla’s goal of becoming a leader in the self-driving technology space, Gebbia’s expertise in the sharing economy could be highly beneficial.

In terms of the stock, Tesla closed at $287.81, up 1.7% on the day but trailing behind the Nasdaq, which rose by 2.1%. There were reports of iPhone weakness for Apple, which may have influenced the stock market, including Tesla and other higher tech growth stocks. The PCE report for the last day of the quarter is upcoming, and it is expected to have a significant impact on the market.

Analyst Alex Potter of Piper Sandler has dropped his Tesla price target by $20 per share from $360 to $340. The reduction is based on higher weighted average cost of capital assumptions, which he has increased to 13.6% from 13.2%. This is due to rising interest rates. Potter has also lowered his Q3 delivery forecast from 380,000 units to about 354,000 units. Potter’s concerns are about Chinese market share, which is where Tesla needs to grow the most.

City remains bearish on Tesla and has reiterated its $140 price target, which is $50 below the current trading price. City has also reduced its Q3 deliveries from 399,000 to 370,000 units, reflecting on Shanghai production and demand concerns. However, City also gave some reasons that could lead to an increased price target from them, including partnering or being acquired by a larger tech company.

Turning to delivery and production estimates, Tesla’s Shanghai production in July was about 38,700, as Tesla had retooling going on during that month. In August, they produced 76,605 vehicles, with the Model 3 completing those production upgrades during that month. In September, the estimate is just below 86,000 vehicles, and this assumes that Tesla was not able to make up for the production lost during the typhoon a week or two ago. This puts them at about 20,000 vehicles per week. Tesla is working towards a production rate of 20,500, so this allows for a little bit of ramping up.

The red flag with Shanghai is on the delivery side. Tesla needs to sell those vehicles, whether it happens in Q3, Q4, or nearby countries. For Texas and Berlin, there is relatively good information available. Drive Tesla Canada has reported that they think Tesla’s recent production at both locations is moving along well. The production shutdowns in July reduced the number of production days, but it is possible Tesla has made up for this loss by restarting production, albeit not at full capacity, over the remaining days. As we move into Q4, we’ll have a much clearer picture of Tesla’s key numbers and whether it will meet its guidance.

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