Tesla will unveil its “Master Plan Part 3” at “Investor Day” on March 1

Tesla will finally unveil a planned expansion of its “master plan” on March 1st at the corporate’s “Investor Day” summit at Giga Texas, said CEO Elon Musk today.

Tesla announced its “Investor Day” event last month, to occur in March. This can be a recent event by Tesla, seemingly separate from the annual shareholder event, where some investors will likely be invited to see updates on Tesla’s progress. The event will likely be livestreamed as well. Up to now, Tesla has held a “Battery Day” and an “AI Day” specializing in those topics.

The corporate said that Investor Day would come with factory tours and discussion of Tesla’s long-term expansion plans and its upcoming generation 3 vehicle platform. Its announcement got here after the tip of Tesla’s worst 12 months within the stock market ever, dropping some 65% in 2022. We now know that Investor Day will include Tesla’s newest “master plan.”

Musk first teased this expansion of Tesla’s “Master Plan” last March, meaning almost a 12 months has passed because it was first publicly mentioned. We thought there was a likelihood the plan can be unveiled at Investor Day, and that prediction was confirmed today.

That is the third version of the corporate’s “master plan,” the primary of which was posted in 2006.

Master Plan Part One

At first, Tesla’s “secret master plan” was a cheeky blog post on the corporate’s original blog site. The goal was to put out the vision behind Tesla as an organization, and let people know what the corporate was planning on doing. The concept was, as an alternative of auto industry plans being shrouded in secrecy, Tesla can be upfront about what it desired to do to alter the industry – to guide us into an all-electric future.

So, the 4 steps of the unique plan went thusly:

  1. Construct sports automotive
  2. Use that cash to construct an inexpensive automotive
  3. Use that money to construct an excellent cheaper automotive
  4. While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options

These referred to the unique Tesla Roadster, the Tesla Model S (which was originally intended to start out at $50,000 after credits), and the Tesla Model 3 (originally intended to start out at $35,000).

Then, ten years down the road, in 2016, the corporate had finished the primary two steps and was within the technique of acquiring SolarCity and putting the ultimate touches on the Model 3, and thus, the tip of the plan was in sight. So it was time for an update.

Master Plan Part Two

Tesla’s “Master Plan, Part Deux” was less cheeky, but again laid out the longer term plans of the corporate. Briefly, these were the 4 steps this time around:

  1. Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage
  2. Expand the electrical vehicle product line to handle all major segments
  3. Develop a self-driving capability that’s 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning
  4. Enable your automotive to make cash for you whenever you aren’t using it

These steps were somewhat more complicated, somewhat more specific, and maybe somewhat more aspirational. And Tesla has seen perhaps less success bringing them to market than the steps of the unique plan.

Step 1 has been accomplished, and a few customers do have solar roofs, but installations have never really gotten off the bottom in large numbers, and Tesla has drastically reduce on installations of solar roofs.

Step 2 is essentially complete, depending on how we define “major.” Cybertruck is nearing production, and might be about as near market as Model 3 was on the time Part Deux was posted. Tesla Semi is on the road now, and Tesla has each large and mid-size luxury sedans and crossovers available. These are many of the major “major” segments of vehicles, though Tesla doesn’t have a really reasonably priced automotive (even its “$35k” model now starts at $43,940 after a recent huge price drop) or any small sedan or hatchback. Or a sportscar, for that matter, but that’s not likely a serious segment.

Step 3 could possibly be argued, but requires heavy massaging of the info. Tesla’s most up-to-date Autopilot safety report shows one accident per 4.31 million miles while activated, in comparison with one accident per 484,000 miles for average vehicles. That is about 10x, but doesn’t bear in mind that Autopilot is generally used on highways, that are dramatically safer than city roads, and recent cars are safer than older cars as well. When comparing to Tesla cars without Autopilot lively, Autopilot is barely about 2.7x safer “than manual” – and again, this doesn’t account for highway vs. surface street differences.

And step 4 is just not even close (unless you hearken to Musk, who has been promising self-driving tech “by this time next 12 months” for about ten years now).

So, execution of this plan has been somewhat more equivocal than the primary. Nevertheless, Tesla sees a have to issue an update regardless, this time seven years after the previous plan was posted, as an alternative of ten.

Master Plan, Part Three

So, what’s left for Master Plan Part Three?

Well, Musk’s announcement today suggested that “the trail to a totally sustainable energy future for Earth will likely be presented on March 1”:

Tesla has previously said that Master Plan Part 3 is “all about achieving very large scale” in vehicle and battery pack production, including mining and refining, enough to “actually shift all the energy infrastructure of earth.” Tesla has recently considered entering into mining, which could find yourself being a part of the master plan update, and is rumored to be seeking to construct a factory in Mexico as well.

Musk’s statement today suggests that the plan won’t just include discussion of cars, but in addition sustainable energy options. Tesla’s current sustainable energy products include solar system installations, solar roof tiles, and stationary battery installations with Powerwalls (for home storage) and Powerpacks (for grid storage). Then there’s Tesla’s Virtual Power Plant program, where Powerwall owners can join a distributed network of energy storage to assist back up the grid in times of need.

These are mainly covered in step 4 of the primary master plan, and step 1 of the second master plan, so we suspect they’ll make an appearance within the third master plan.

It seems likely that we’ll see something just like the unfinished points of the last master plan, perhaps having to do with autonomous driving. Particularly, possibly we’ll hear an update on the dedicated robotaxi which Tesla has alluded to multiple times.

Beyond that, the image chosen for the commercial is notable, because it appears to be a big repeating pattern of many stamped automotive bodies. This refers back to the previously-announced concentrate on production scaling, as Tesla still plans to scale automotive production and deliveries by ~50% per 12 months for the foreseeable future. Tesla delivered 1.3 million in 2022, which was up 40% from 2021, and desires to deliver 1.8-2 million cars in 2023.

And maybe, though Tesla used pictures of a Model 3 body, it’d announce a brand new, even-more-mass-production model.

Tesla has previously mentioned that Investor Day would come with discussion of its “generation 3” platform, which is predicted to be cheaper than the Model 3/Y platform. Since those cars were originally meant to start out at around $35k, the following step was to release a vehicle starting at around $25k, but Tesla has gone forwards and backwards on whether that automotive was within the plans.

We suspect we’ll discover on March 1 whether it’s.

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